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Prediction for CME (2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-15T15:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20841/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo N in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with large north-central filament eruption beginning 2022-07-15T13:02Z, visible in GOES-16 SUVI 171/304. The CME arrival signature is characterized by magnetic amplification accompanied by a jump on solar wind speed and density. Some time later (2022-07-19T04:00Z) there is a drop in temperature and a change of magnetic component pattern to a more smooth one, probably indicating the arrival of magnetic cloud. B_total reached a peak of over 16 nT at 2022-07-19T00:23Z. This looks more like a flank impact of a CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-18T20:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-18T12:58Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-07-15 23:33
 - Time at C2: 2022-07-15 15:23
 - Radial speed: 539.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 41 deg
 - Eruption location: N21W12
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 567.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-07-18 12:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.60 hours)
Lead Time: 55.67 hour(s)
Difference: 7.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-07-16T13:00Z
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